A Deeper Dive into NFL Draft Picks (Pt. 2)

Evaluating draft outcomes by position can help teams decide when they need to pounce in order to fill a need

Introduction

I recently dove into what teams can expect in terms of output (using wAV as a measurement) from their draft picks depending on when they are selected in the draft. This analysis, however, was position agnostic. In the draft, as well as in teambuilding in general, positions do matter. While every draft is different in terms of its strengths and weaknesses by position, I sought to explore if there were certain positions that teams needed to target earlier in the Draft if they needed an impact player.

Methodology

To accomplish this, I analyzed draft classes between 2015-19, with the thought that they were recent enough to be in tune with the trends of today’s NFL, but also far enough back that we can fairly evaluate most players based on performance going into the 2023 season. I tagged each player selected based on the order they were taken in the draft based on position, meaning for example that the 3rd Quarterback taken would be QB3 and the 4th Safety taken would be S4. I then calculated 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile outcomes for each of these categorizations based on wAV, as well as their Average Draft Position (ADP). This helps not only determine how late in a draft you can get a quality player at a given position, but also help identify positions that might be a good value at a given point in the draft.

For each position, I charted the 25th-75th percentile outcomes. In each visualization, the light blue shading represents 25th-50th percentile outcomes and the dark blue 50th-75th. Every draft has more players selected at certain positions than in others, but I chose not to chart buckets with just one or two players in them. As an example, there was only one RB27 since there were not 27 Running Backs selected in 4 of the 5 drafts covered. Thus, RB27 will not appear on the RB Chart. There are a handful of instances where we do not see a bar, which signifies that the 25th and 75th percentile outcomes are equal to each other. Details on these can be found in the footnotes.¹

Executive Summary

Teams looking for their Franchise Quarterback should expect to have to invest a top-10, most likely a top-5 pick to do so. Those looking for a lockdown Cornerback or a top Left Tackle should likewise expect to do so in the top-20. Given the drop-off in outcomes after the top 2-3 players at each of those positions, teams that miss out on those prospects should look elsewhere with their 1st round pick rather than reach for a lower caliber prospect.

At Wide Receiver and in the Front 7, teams routinely draft quality players into the 3rd Round. Teams with needs at these positions do not necessarily need to be as aggressive in striking early, given that depth. That being said, the limitations in PFR’s data makes it difficult to determine exactly how late a team can wait before it becomes hard to draft a good pass rusher. Anecdotally, most the top Edge Rushers in the NFL seem to be 1st Round picks, but teams do also seem to find ways to fill needs at the position without investing top picks, be it through trades (ex. the 49ers deal for Chase Young) or August signings of veterans (ex. the Ravens signing of Jadeveon Clowney). Regardless, teams with needs at these positions do not need to be foolish in moving up the draft board, and can likely find quality players by standing pat.

At Tight End, it is important to get one of the top-4 players in a class but the 2nd and 3rd Rounds seem to be a sweet spot to draft these players. Given that TEs rarely produce much in their rookie season, using a 1st round pick on them seems unnecessary. Similarly, teams can reliably find good Interior Offensive Linemen and Safeties well into the 3rd Round, and often later. Especially given that signing Free Agents at these positions tends to be comparatively cheap, teams should use 1st and early 2nd round picks elsewhere. Lastly, teams that draft a Running Back high tend to achieve good outcomes. However, given how short RB careers are, it is a misuse of assets to take one too high in the Draft with other more pressing needs since their best years will be wasted during a rebuild. Teams can routinely pick good RBs in the 3rd Round or later, when it becomes more difficult to find starters at more premium positions. Should a contending team with few to no other needs, however, have the opportunity to snag a top RB in the 1st Round - I think that is defensible.

Ultimately, teams should carefully evaluate their needs and set their draft strategies appropriately. Those with needs at QB, LT, and CB should find a way to acquire the type of pick that allows them to pick one of the top players at those positions. Teams with a handful of needs outside those three positions should not be afraid to trade down and accumulate picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, where teams are finding quality players at most other positions. Lastly, the quality of players selected drops off after the middle of the 3rd Round. As I have argued before, contending teams should not be afraid to part with 4th-5th and even late-3rd round picks to acquire talented veterans at positions of need - especially if their contract is reasonable like players on the final year of their rookie contract. The previously mentioned 49ers trade for Chase Young is a perfect example of such a move.

Detailed Positional Breakdowns

Quarterback

At QB, the data backs up conventional wisdom about taking your guy early. If you are looking for a Franchise QB, he has to be one of the first two, maybe three, taken. And even then, there is risk. For context the median wAV for QB1 and QB2 is 51 and 54 respectively, with the 75th percentile wAV for both falling at 59. To conceptualize, Kyler Murray’s wAV is 51, Marcus Mariota’s is 54, and Jameis Winston’s is 59. While all three of those players have had good success in the NFL, none are a Franchise QB at the moment. Going into the 2023 season, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson had wAVs of 68 and 69 respectively, providing us with a benchmark of how a young Franchise QB grades out. This tells us that drafting a franchise QB is already a low probability outcome even amongst the first few QBs taken, and becomes nearly impossible as more come off the board. QB1 and QB2 have an ADP of 1.2 and 4.6 respectively. QB3 has an ADP of 27.0, though in drafts with higher quality QBs, this number is significantly lower. This means teams should expect to have to be in the top-5 or at least top-10 to get a top QB in the draft.

A qualitative look at the top-QBs in the league backs this up as well. While QB rankings are subjective, most NFL fans and analysts consider Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Trevor Lawrence to be undisputed Franchise QBs. Of those, all but Hurts and Jackson were top-10 picks and both of them faced questions about their style of play translating into the NFL from college. Given that drafting a Franchise QB is already a low probability event, it is very telling that the majority of them were top-10 picks. This is not to say that there are no successful QBs taken later in the draft, but that even finding an average starter becomes an outlier. Smart decisionmakers should not rely on achieving such an outcome, and aggressively move for a Franchise QB atop the Draft if and when that need arises.

Running Back

Teams often get panned for taking Running Backs early, but the top couple RBs selected tend to have good career outcomes. Interestingly, the 25th and 50th percentile outcome for RB1s is the same (hence why no light blue shading) at a wAV of 38. Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley are examples of players achieving such a score. A 75th percentile outcome at RB1 is drafting someone with a wAV of 54, which jumps to 57 for RB2. RBs with wAVs around 54 include Todd Gurley and Dalvin Cook, while those scoring around 57 include Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. This upside drops off dramatically later in the draft. However, taking one of the first two RBs is likely to cost teams a top pick. RB1 has an ADP of 8.8 and RB2 of 29.6. A team picking in the top-10 is likely to have needs at more premium positions than Running Back, but I can see the justification for a contending team taking one at the end of the first round if they see a star RB as the only missing piece on their team and want to get ahead of teams looking to select one in the second round.

Teams can still find quality Running Backs throughout the draft. RB5, for example, has a median wAV of 28 and an ADP of 74.2, which corresponds to the middle of the third round. RBs with a comparable wAVs include David Montgomery and Duke Johnson - both of whom have or had more than enough talent to play an important part of an RB rotation and were third round picks. Given that many third-round picks do not make it to their second contract, and that my position agnostic analysis found that mid-third round picks achieved a median wAV score of 15, RBs taken at this juncture could be a nice value. Teams can routinely find capable rotational backs deep into the draft, with the occasional home run, making them worth late round fliers.

Wide Receiver

There has been a major influx of high-end Wide Receivers into the NFL over the past several years, though there is a large range of outcomes. Outside of WR1, there is a large amount of downside risk in taking a WR. However, there is significant upside as well. Even at WR9, with an ADP of 75.8, a 75th percentile outcome would be to select a player achieving a wAV of 37. Examples of such players include John Brown, most notably of the Bills and Cardinals, and Mike Williams of the Chargers. Both players, while not necessarily bona fide WR1s, have had multiple 1,000 yard seasons in the NFL. And while Williams was a first round pick in 2017, Brown was a third round selection. Median outcomes for WR2-WR5 hover around a wAV of 24, indicating output from these picks is similar to that of players such as Will Fuller and Cortland Sutton - both of whom have flashed in the NFL.

Overall, there does seem to be some downside protection in making the first move at WR, but teams are able to draft 30+ wAV WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds such as Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk. Even late into the draft, teams are finding WRs that can stick on rosters as the 4th or 5th man on the depth chart. Players like Julian Edelman, Antonio Brown, and Puka Nauka are some prominent examples of home runs taken late, though again those are outliers. The data shows that WR needy teams have time in the first couple rounds to make their move, but should be prepared to accept a high bust rate. Receivers are also worth a dart throw later in the draft to at least round out a WR room, and my hunch is that many of the diamonds in the rough taken on Day 3 are slot receivers.

Tight End

There is a massive drop off in outcomes after the first four TEs selected in the draft. After that, the likely best case scenario would be to draft a player with a wAV of 14, meaning a player like C.J. Uzomah, who was the eighth TE selected in 2015. Uzomah is a solid player who has enjoyed a nice career in the league, but is not considered a game changer at the position. It is more likely, however, that a team will end up with a player achieving a wAV of 5 or lower, indicating a backup or depth TE. Teams need multiple Tight Ends, and it is possible that wAV discounts the value of blocking TEs like Lee Smith (who had a career wAV of 5), but it is clear that clubs need to pounce on one of the top-4 TEs in a draft if they want to maximize their chances of picking a difference-maker in the pass game at the position.

However, it is not essential for teams to make the first move at the position either. The median outcome for both the first and fourth TE selected is to achieve a wAV of 20. Gerald Everett is an example of a player of that caliber. The largest upside is at TE2, with a 75th percentile outcome being selecting a player with a wAV of 26, with Hunter Henry as an example of a such a TE. While the ADP of the TE1 tends to be at the back of the 1st round (25.6), TE4 does not usually get drafted until the 3rd (75.4). This tells us that the sweet spot for Tight Ends is in the 2nd-3rd rounds, which coincides with where all-time greats Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski were selected as well as productive players like Henry, Dallas Goedert, and rookie phenom Sam LaPorta. Selecting a TE in the 1st round does not seem to improve the odds of hitting on the pick, but teams should also not expect much of Day 3 picks at the position - at least in terms of production as a pass catcher.

Offensive Tackle

The takeaway at Tackle is simple - if you are looking for an elite player to protect your QB’s blindside, he better be one of the top-3 Tackles in his draft class. After the top few Tackles, it becomes very difficult to find a cornerstone at this position. The ADP of T3 is 22.8, so it is important to strike early at the position - much like at Quarterback. After T5, with an ADP of 60.0, 75th percentile outcomes do not rise above drafting someone with a wAV of 22 - a score achieved by Joe Haeg, a RT who started just over half the games he played in his 6-year career. Players like Haeg are an important part of a team, but would not suffice for a team in need of a top starter at the position - especially at LT.

The top tackles selected, however, tend to be solid picks. The median outcome at T1 and T2 is to select a player with a wAV of 34 and 35 respectively. Examples of Tackles with wAVs of 34 include Kolton Miller and Garett Boles - both of whom are starting NFL LTs. T3 has a median outcome of picking someone with a wAV of 31, meaning a player the caliber of Mike McGlinchey - one of the better RTs in the NFL. 75th percentile outcomes for the top-3 Tackles tends to be selecting Pro Bowl caliber LTs such as Laremy Tunsil (wAV of 43). A look at the top Tackles in the NFL validates this data. Of Pro Football Focus’ top-10 tackles going into the 2023 Season, all but one were a 1st Round Pick - the exception being Philadelphia Eagles LT Jordan Mailata, who was a Rugby player from Australia that had never played football before being drafted in the 7th Round in 2018. Mailata’s situation is highly unique, and teams should not expect it to occur every year.

Interior Offensive Linemen

Fans often complain when their team takes a Guard early in the draft, and they might have a point. While Guards may seem like safe picks, there is significant downside. The median outcome of selecting the first Guard in the draft is finding someone with a wAV of 23. An example of a player with such a score is Jon Feliciano, a solid player no doubt, but who has bounced around the league largely on low-money contracts. With an ADP of 22.2, this feels like a misuse of a 1st Round pick both in terms of outcome and opportunity cost. It is cheaper to sign or trade for starting Guards as compared to more premium positions, so teams are better served using this valuable draft capital elsewhere. Median outcomes show that the first five guards routinely earn wAVs greater than 30, meaning teams can draft a player of the caliber of Wyatt Teller - a two-time Pro Bowler. The fifth Guard in the draft has an ADP of 106.0, meaning they can reliably taken into the 4th Round. Teller himself was the fifth Guard selected in 2018, and lasted until the 5th Round. Even in late rounds, teams are finding Guards with wAVs in the high teens or early 20s, meaning it is possible to find a solid backup or spot starter in the Draft’s later rounds.

There is less of a downside in taking one of the first Centers in the Draft, but like with Guards, teams can find solid players late into the Draft. The median outcome for the first two Centers taken is earning a wAV of 27. For the next two selected, the median outcome is achieving a wAV of 24 (this is also the 75th percentile outcome which is why there is no dark blue bar). Players with these wAVs include Erik McCoy (24) and Bradley Bozeman (27), both of whom are starting Centers in the NFL. The fourth Center has an ADP of 135.2, meaning teams routinely find starters into the late 4th round and beyond. Bozeman, for example, was a 6th Round pick in 2018, and the 8th Center to come off the board. The first Center typically comes off the board towards the end of the 1st Round (ADP of 26.6), but teams are better served prioritizing other needs at this juncture and finding a Center in the middle-rounds of the Draft.

Defensive Tackle

Teams are pretty consistently able to draft 30+ wAV Defensive Tackles if they pick one of the top-5 in a Draft. This means finding players like Vita Vea and Dexter Lawrence, both of whom have made Pro Bowls in the past couple seasons. These players, however, tend to go off the board between the middle of the 1st and 2nd rounds (DT1 has an ADP of 14.8 and DT5 of 51.4). Outcomes seem to be a little all over the place for the remaining DTs taken. Median outcomes drop fairly significantly, largely falling in the mid teens for DT6-DT10. This means finding a player like Harrison Phillips - a solid rotational player. Downside risk is also significantly higher for these players, though that is par for the course as we approach a part of the draft where around half the players do not make it to a second contract. Interestingly, there is significant upside to be realized even late in the draft relative to a position agnostic analysis of the late rounds. Overall Defensive Tackle seems like a nice position for teams picking in the back half of the 1st round and early 2nd round to target, as well as later in the Draft where there is still some upside to be had.

Defensive Ends

What most clearly stands out here is the large delta between DE1 and the rest of the pack. There is a major reward from drafting the top Defensive End in a class, but with an ADP of 3.4, a team will need to be picking in the top-3 to make such a selection. However, teams in need of help at DE need not fear if they do not have a high draft pick. Even at DE10, the median outcome would be drafting a player with a wAV of 17, which means a player the caliber of a solid rotational Defensive Lineman like Chris Wormley. The ADP of DE10 is 92.0, and there is upside to be realized at a 75th percentile outcome, telling us that teams are frequently finding productive players at the position late into the 3rd round. And while many of the DEs taken after that flame out, there is still upside to be had in the later rounds.

A major weakness in PFR’s dataset is that it fails to separate out Edge Rushers from 3-4 Defensive Ends. Players like Myles Garrett and Henry Anderson are both classified as DEs but bring vastly different skills to the table. I believe making this distinction is important in accurately evaluating outcomes at the position, and we run into similar issues at Linebacker as well.

Linebacker

PFR started to separate out some Linebackers into an OLB and ILB category starting with the 2015 Draft, but still had some players in a generic LB category. However, in 2019, they did not use the OLB categorization. As such, for the sake of this analysis, I lumped all Linebackers into one category to make things consistent. Median and 75th percentile outcomes drop off after LB9, but with an ADP of 68.4, it tells us that teams are drafting very productive LBs into the early 3rd round. The median outcome at LB9 is picking someone with a wAV of 33, indicating players the caliber of starting Linebackers like Zach Cunningham. Although the downside grows, teams are still routinely drafting players at the position with wAVs in the mid teens through the 4th and 5th rounds of the draft. An example of such a player is Mack Wilson, a former 5th round pick who is a rotational LB and Special Teamer for the Patriots. 75th percentile outcomes rise a little above that as well.

Again, this data would be better strengthened by at least separating Edge Rushers from Off-ball Linebackers. Players like Rashan Gary and Jahlani Tavai, both selected in the 2019 Draft, are classified as LBs but have vastly different skill sets. A true evaluation of positional outcomes will require making this distinction. Overall, not separating out Edge rushers makes it a little difficult to determine where in the Draft teams in need of pass rush help need to pounce. A look at PFF’s top Edge Rusher rankings show that most the Tier 1 (5 of 6) and Tier 2 (4 of 6) players are 1st Round picks, but several Tier 3-5 players were taken later with a few even going undrafted. Perhaps this tells us that teams that are comfortable with just having a couple of Tier 3-5 Edge Rushers, like the Patriots with Matthew Judon and Josh Uche, can afford to wait until the 2nd or 3rd rounds (or even later) to select players at the position and/or sign them in Free Agency. Teams that desire a top-tier Edge Rusher might want to plan to invest a 1st Round Pick, or prepare to pony up in Free Agency like the Bills did for Von Miller in 2022.

Cornerback

Like Quarterback and Tackle, Cornerback is another top-heavy position. There is a significant drop off in outcomes after the top-two CBs go off the board. CB2 has an ADP of 18.6, meaning teams need to pounce early at the position. Median outcomes here are to draft CBs with a wAVs of 28 and 27 - meaning a quality player the caliber of Kendall Fuller. Drafting a player like Marshon Lattimore (wAV of 37), a four-time Pro Bowler, is the 75th percentile outcome at CB1. Generating that kind of impact quickly becomes an outlier after the first few CBs go off the board. Indeed, a look at the consensus top CBs in the league shows that most were top-20 picks, such as Sauce Gardner, Patrick Surtain Jr, Jaire Alexander, Jalen Ramsey, and Stephon Gilmore. That’s not to say that teams don’t find great CBs later in the Draft - Trevon Diggs and Darius Slay are two examples of 2nd Round picks that are now NFL Stars. But even historically, top players at the position like Ty Law, Champ Bailey, Darelle Revis, Charles Woodson, and Deion Sanders were 1st round picks. Of that list of Hall of Famers, only Law fell out of the top-20. While every team does not need a lockdown CB, but those who want one need to be aware of the likely cost.

However, teams should not completely ignore the position outside the top-20. Teams need 4-5 CBs (or more) on their roster. The data and a look at NFL rosters show that teams are routinely finding productive Cornerbacks throughout the Draft, particularly slot Corners, and that plenty of teams assemble solid CB rooms through Free Agency/trades and picks later on in the Draft. The Philadelphia Eagles are a good example of this, as they acquired Darius Slay in exchange for a 3rd and 5th round pick in 2020 and signed James Bradberry to a reasonable contract in Free Agency in 2022.

Safety

There is significant upside in drafting the first Safety, with a 75th percentile outcome of drafting a player with a wAV of 42 such as Jamal Adams. That being said, median outcomes are similar for the first 5 Safeties drafted - hovering around selecting someone with a wAV in the low 20s. An example of such a player is Keanu Neal, a starter for most his career that has battled injuries. While the first Safety comes off the board at an ADP of 16.4, the fifth Safety has an ADP of 67.2 - which is early in the 3rd Round. Finding Safeties with wAVs in the low 20s is a 75th percentile outcome even later on in the Draft.

Especially given the reasonable contracts that Safeties receive in Free Agency, this tells us that teams can deprioritize the position in the first round, as there are still productive players drafted on Day 2 and even Day 3.

Concluding Thoughts

The point of this analysis is not to discount the importance of scouting and development. Both are integral parts of the NFL Draft and general teambuilding process. In fact, a team that follows exactly what the data or analytics says will make mistakes too. However, it is important for teams to be realistic and clearheaded in their thinking. Simply expecting to achieve or blindly hope for outlier outcomes in the draft is not sound decision-making. If a team wants to wait until the 2nd Round to find their starting QB, for example, they need to believe they have a concrete advantage based on something empirical as compared to the rest of the NFL in identifying or developing talent at the position.

Ultimately, there is so much that Front Offices cannot control about outcome and low probability outcomes can and do happen. Teams should do their best to avoid letting these unlikely outcomes overly cloud their judgement. The best thing that teams can do to try and improve the likelihood of good outcomes outweighing the bad, is to follow sound decision-making processes. This starts with Front Offices thinking honestly about their strengths and weaknesses in the player evaluation process as they plan out their draft strategies. Data can serve as an important guide but will not have all the answers. Football, after all is played on the field, not a computer.

I am happy to share the Excel workbook I used with anyone who requests it. Please don’t hesitate to reach out via email at gauravv@mit.edu.

1. 25th-75th percentile wAV is 6 for QB6, 0 for QB9, and 1 for QB11

25th-75th percentile wAV is 0 for RB18

25th-75th percentile wAV is 0 for both WR22 and WR27

25th-75th percentile wAV is 1 for DE17