NFL Teams Should Be More Active at the Trade Deadline
Increased in-season trade activity can help NFL teams better plug holes in anticipation of playoff runs
The MLB, NBA, and NHL trade deadlines all receive much fanfare year in and year out. Major sports networks host a show in the hours leading up to the deadline, and fans obsessively refresh X, formerly known as Twitter, to see if their favorite team made a move. However in the NFL, America’s most popular sports league, the deadline is largely an afterthought. While last year was the most active NFL Trade Deadline in 30 years, the number of trades still pales in comparison to the other three leagues, all of which see several dozen players change uniforms at or around the deadline - compared to just 20 in a record year for the NFL.
I combed through the transaction logs over the past five seasons for each of the MLB teams to make their League Championship Series, as well as the NBA and NHL teams to make their Conference Final to see how winning teams in other sports approached their trade deadlines. Given that the 2020 MLB Season was greatly shortened due to COVID, thereby affecting roster moves, I chose instead to consider data from 2018. The results were staggering. Overall, 85% of those 60 teams made a trade to add to their big league roster at or in the weeks to months leading up to the trade deadline. By sport, this breaks down to 95% of MLB Teams, 70% of NBA Teams, and 90% of NHL Teams analyzed. Of the 14 teams to win a championship in this window, all but two of them made a move at the deadline - meaning that 86% executed a trade.
Intuitively, this does not seem like a coincidence. In both business and sports, it is integral for decisionmakers to be able to make changes to their plans if the situation requires it. Often in sports, even the best constructed rosters have holes come midseason, be it due to injuries or underperformance. It should come as no surprise then, that the decisionmakers of most successful teams in sports tend to actively try and improve their weak spots as they arise.
There are countless examples of in-season trades, many of which are depth moves rather than blockbusters, reaping dividends later in the season. One prime example is a series of trades made by the 2021 Atlanta Braves that propelled them from a .500 team to World Series Champions. Outfielder Jorge Soler, acquired from the Kansas City Royals, ended up winning the World Series MVP award. Fellow Outfielder Eddie Rosario, acquired from Cleveland, was named NLCS MVP. The Braves also traded for Outfielder Adam Duvall and Utility Player Joc Pederson, both of whom played key roles in their stretch run. The 2018 Boston Red Sox also made shrewd moves at the deadline to bolster their roster, which was already one of the best in baseball. First Baseman Steve Pearce, considered at the time as a minor depth acquisition, won the World Series MVP award that season, while Pitcher “Big Game Nate” Eovaldi became an integral part of the pitching staff that postseason. In basketball, the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors’ acquisition of Center Marc Gasol stands out as a transformative trade, with Gasol going on to bolster the Raptors frontcourt and serve as a starter in a season that ended with them winning the title. In hockey, the 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning’s trade for Forward Blake Coleman is an example of a depth move that paid off handsomely. While not an elite goal scorer, NHL analysts and Coleman’s coaches raved about his grit and defensive prowess, citing them as playing a key role in the Lightning hoisting the Stanley Cup that season.
Trades, of course, do not always result in a Championship. The 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers paid a handsome price for Shortstop Trea Turner and Pitcher Max Scherzer, while the 2022 San Diego Padres traded some of their top prospects for Outfielder Juan Soto. Neither team made the World Series. The 2022-23 Boston Bruins emptied the cupboard of future draft picks to acquire Defenseman Dimitri Orlov and Forwards Garnet Hathaway and Tyler Bertuzzi, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Still, in these instances, it is important to evaluate the process rather than just judging the outcome. While Scherzer left the Dodgers at the end of the season, Turner spent another season in Los Angeles - contributing to another playoff run. Headed into the 2023-24 offseason, Soto remains on the Padres roster as well. It is hard to fault the decision making for both teams given that they were trading for established superstars and that prospects traded at the deadline have historically made little impact. While each of the players the Bruins acquired left the team this past offseason, they rightfully went all-in to take advantage of what ended up being the last NHL season for star Centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krecji. General Managers can only control process, not outcome, and looking at how successful teams outside the NFL operate shows us that attempting to improve a team with championship aspirations via in-season trades tends to be a sound decision.
Recent rule changes around roster movement and economic principles also provide evidence that teams should be more active at the trade deadline. First and foremost, the expansion of Practice Squads has reduced both the quantity and quality of players available to sign in-season as Free Agents. In 2019, Practice Squads consisted of just 10 players with strict restrictions on signing veteran players. Now, however, the Practice Squad consists of 16 players with fewer restrictions on eligibility. This means that there are now 192 fewer players available to sign as Free Agents at any given time for needs that arise during the season. Given that more veterans are now on Practice Squads, the quality of the Free Agents is likely lower than before the rule changes. Simple economics would dictate that employers response to this supply shock would be to pay more for talent. However, unlike in most of the business world, teams cannot lure players away from their competitors with a higher salary unless their contract has expired. While teams can, and do, sign players off other Practice Squads, teams can protect up to four players a week - likely preventing some of the better players from jumping ship.
As such, contending teams looking to fill holes on their roster in-season should look to other avenues than Free Agency - with making trades standing out as the best option. Unlike in other sports, where trading players for each other is far more common, picks are almost exclusively the currency used to make trades in the NFL. However, while building through the draft is important, research shows that most individual picks end up as busts. In fact, just over half of third round picks do not receive a second contract in the NFL, with that number dropping further in later rounds. For a contending team, an established player acquired via trade is much more likely to add value in one half season than a mid or late round draft pick is during their whole career. Evidence from other sports shows that making moves to fill holes on a roster can help improve a team’s chances at making a deep playoff run, which seems well worth the risk given the low success rate of draft picks - especially in and beyond the third round. This is not to say that contending teams should empty their cupboard of picks, but that making a trade at the deadline like the one the Philadelphia Eagles made at the draft for D’Andre Swift, is likely to pay dividends.
For teams with little to no chances of making the playoffs, trading impending free agents that they do not intend to re-sign is still a sound decision even given the low success rate of draft picks. Should a player depart a team in Free Agency, the only compensation they are eligible to receive is a compensatory pick. These selections fall at the end of the third round at the very earliest and in the following off-season’s draft. The theory of time value of money tells us that a dollar in the present is worth more than one in the future, and the same applies to draft picks. NFL teams justly tend to place a one round penalty on selections in future drafts relative to the current or upcoming draft - meaning, for example, that a 3rd Round Pick in the 2025 draft would have similar value to a 4th Round Pick in 2024. Furthermore, a team that signs more compensation eligible Free Agents than it loses will not receive anything in return for a departed Free Agent. As such, selling teams are likely to receive more valuable compensation trading such players at the deadline than through the compensatory pick system. This makes them better off in the long-run making the decision to sell, as the pick is more likely to add value and positively contribute to a future playoff run than a Free Agent the team expects to lose in the off-season.
As we approach the 2023 Trade Deadline, my advice to teams would be to have a candid and honest conversation about their playoff chances this season and the holes on their roster. Teams that realistically believe they have a chance to make a deep playoff run should aggressively target players to improve on their weaknesses. Those who make the difficult decision that making the playoffs is unlikely should determine which of their impending Free Agents they hope to bring back, and try to maximize value on those they see leaving after the season. For Owners evaluating their Front Offices at the end of the season, I’d encourage an increased focus on process rather than outcome. A General Manager who is aggressive in bolstering their roster should not necessarily be punished for falling short of a Super Bowl or even if the trades do not pan out as planned. Perhaps more importantly, a Front Office that makes the difficult decision to sell should not be punished for losing more games than they might have had they held onto the players they dealt. Choosing to build and optimize for the future shows sounder decision making than to either be delusional about a team’s playoff chances or try to maximize win total in a losing season.